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“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” — Niels Bohr, physicist (1885-1962)

"Everything that can go wrong, has gone wrong. It just hasn't happened yet." -- Philips' Quantum Corollary to Murphy's Law


Back To The Futures

October 2006

Today we risk a breach of competition lawsuit from Shirley MacLaine and attempt to predict the future.

You've heard of time capsules where artifacts from the present are sealed for opening by people from the future. Phrased that way, it almost sounds like science fiction, doesn't it?

Mystics tell us that time is an illusion, a human contrivance; that time has no beginning and no end. Oh, yeah? Try telling that to my sagging derriere.

In a recent laboratory experiment physicists caused light to move backwards. If light can move backwards, then perhaps time can move backwards as well and we can finally know what happened to Jimmy Hoffa.

In the back of each month's edition of Wired magazine is a feature called 'Artifacts From The Future.' Here is a practical application I can already envision: a limited-duration time travel device to assist spatially challenged drivers in backing up a car. They would simply switch the device on, wait 10 seconds (while adjusting their hair) then drive forward. Sorry.

I enjoy predicting the future, but find it much easier to predict the past where my track record approaches 100%.

My future prediction rate has been close to 100% as well, it's just that some of the things I predicted haven't happened yet. See? I'm using that device already.

Based on all that has happened over the past 200 years, here are some predictions for the next 100 years that I will place in an envelope and give to my children to open one day, long after I am pushing up begonias.

These predictions are not meant to be pessimistic. They merely extrapolate recent and current trends into the future as I see them developing.

POLISHING MY CRYSTAL BALL

* The prices of gold and silver will go into orbit.

* Gold and silver bullion (excepting numismatic coins trading at at least twice spot) will once again be confiscated by the U.S. government.

* The so-called 'War On Terrorism' will last at least another generation. A future stage of this 'war' will include acts of terrorism on U.S. soil, including suicide bombings.

* America will once again openly use a nuclear weapon against a declared enemy.

* A military draft will be reinstated and will include women.

* The America Empire will go the route of the British Empire.

* The 21st Century will close with China running the show.

* All forms of alternative, free market money will be criminalized and eliminated.

* Metal detectors (and/or facial recognition scanners) will be in place at most shopping centers and public schools.

* The United States economy will purge the credit excesses of the past 50 years by passing through the 'Fall' and 'Winter' phases of the Kontradiev Cycle.

* Unfunded entitlement programs and an escalating war economy will cause the dollar to collapse.

* Paper money will be eliminated, outlawed and replaced by mandatory debit and credit cards.

* A rough coalition of China, Russia and various Islamic nations will unite to confront the U.S. militarily.

* Islam will overspread the world and Christianity will go underground once again.

* The filing of IRS income tax forms will be eliminated and replaced by an RFID-based system that extracts an excise tax from even the smallest transactions, at the point of retail purchase, in real-time.

* A national financial account will be required of each citizen. It will probably be called the 'USA FREEDOM ACCOUNT' or something similar, and sold to the public as a necessity in order to combat financial terrorism. The account will consolidate all checking, savings, CD's, trading, IRA, 401(k), investment and other financial accounts into a single, master account (or at least you will have to login to this account first, prior to accessing your other, individual accounts). The government will use this account from which to deduct unpaid child support, taxes, fines, fees and other penalties.

* Many nutritional supplements will be outlawed (as alcohol and hemp variously have been).

* The airline industry will be consolidated into a single quasi-governmental entity similar to Amtrak.

* A license will be required to own a domain name and operate a web site.

* Web sites questioning the official version of reality will not be granted a license.

* Positive biometric identification will be required for any user to logon to the Internet.

* U.S. citizens will be required by law to carry at all times a federally approved identification card.

* At least one state (California? New Jersey?) will establish border 'check points' and require anyone passing in or out of the state to 'show your papers.'

AND NOW FOR THE INVESTOR ANGLE
If unstoppable social and political forces should cause gold and silver to go straight up and the U.S. paper dollar to go straight down, what will you do? Suffer, or profit?

First, we should probably address my presumptive use of the term 'unstoppable'.

A cursory examination of history teaches us that the public never bands together to resist the forces that oppress them until it is too late. Not only do they not resist their oppression, they actually enable it with voluntary donations of their own labor (taxes).

Etienne de Boetie attempted to warn the world of this tendency in 1552 in 'The Politics of Disobedience,' a landmark essay that has not become required reading in the public schools.

A few hundred years later in 1849 Henry David Thoreau followed with 'Civil Disobedience,' another watershed piece that just about nobody has read, either.

You could add to this rarified list the writings of Lysander Spooner, Ayn Rand, H. L. Mencken and others, all of whom thought just a little too much for their own good.

When oppression becomes intolerable a revolution erupts, freedom breaks out all over (for a little while, anyway) and the pointer on the Freedom Wheel points straight up to 'Liberty.'

As time inexorably passes and the wheel turns, the pointer points in succession to Prosperity, Abundance, Satisfaction, Complacency, Sloth, Amorality, Slavery and finally back to Revolution, when the lid blows off and (Boing!) the pointer stands straight up once again. Vive la Liberté!

But that's probably a ways off from now. All of which reminds us of the joke about the farmer who went to visit his friend. They sat down to rock together on the front porch with an old yellow dog lying between them.

Every once in a while that old coon dog would raise its head and go 'Ow-ooo! Ow-oooooo!' This went on for a while until the friend asked, 'Why in tarnation does he keep doing that?'

The farmer answered, 'Well, you see, there's a nail sticking up through that porch and Old Yeller's laying right on top of that nail. It's not sticking up far enough to make him get up and move, so every once in a while he just lets out a yowl.'

So our premise is that until things become unbearable the current course of history will 'stay the course' and the kind of dystopic 'Clockwork Orange' world in which the above predicted conditions could exist will probably evolve.

If you believe as I do that all this is not only possible but likely, what do you do to protect your children, even if it's too late to do much to protect yourself,
perhaps due to age or economic circumstances?

The answers are simple. Invest in (BUY) those things whose prices will rise dramatically as the result of the inevitable actions of governments (and the people who feed them), and SELL those things whose prices will fall precipitously for the same reasons.

Once this decision has been made, a portfolio must be created with proper diversification between paper denominated assets (such as gold mining stocks), and physical assets (i.e., the real thing, like gold coins), as well as diversification between domestic and international stocks, etc.

Question: If you're surfing in the ocean and a 100 foot high financial 'rogue' wave approaches, what do you do? Hold your breath and dive down deep (along with your portfolio)? Stay still and pray for a government helicopter?

The best bet would probably be to get on your silver surfboard, oil it up and ride it in. When you get home, don't forget to make sure your children learn Chinese.